We’ve made progress on the labor market and I expect those gains to continue to in the autumn

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Comments on CNBC

Clarida
  • Says he expects further gains in the autumn
  • I don’t think it takes 800K gains in jobs but it will take robust gains
  • Inflation is very likely to be largely transitory
  • Bottlenecks are larger than I expected but inflation will move back to our longer run goal
  • Repeats that he thinks inflation risks are to the upside
  • We’ll get a better reading on whether the labor market is in the autumn

The Fed is clearly coalescing around a Nov or Dec taper. He repeatedly highlighted that he wanted to see some autumn jobs reports. The issue is that by the time of the Nov 2 FOMC, they’ll only have the Aug and Sept data.

Like Powell, Clarida didn’t directly address the taper but you don’t need to read deeply between the lines to recognize that a September taper is off the table even if we get 1m jobs next week.

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