Comments on CNBC
- Says he expects further gains in the autumn
- I don’t think it takes 800K gains in jobs but it will take robust gains
- Inflation is very likely to be largely transitory
- Bottlenecks are larger than I expected but inflation will move back to our longer run goal
- Repeats that he thinks inflation risks are to the upside
- We’ll get a better reading on whether the labor market is in the autumn
The Fed is clearly coalescing around a Nov or Dec taper. He repeatedly highlighted that he wanted to see some autumn jobs reports. The issue is that by the time of the Nov 2 FOMC, they’ll only have the Aug and Sept data.
Like Powell, Clarida didn’t directly address the taper but you don’t need to read deeply between the lines to recognize that a September taper is off the table even if we get 1m jobs next week.